Despite recent news indicating Canada has entered a technical recession, marked by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth since Q4 2025, Canadian equities surprisingly ended May on a positive note. This resilience, alongside compelling valuation metrics and strong technical indicators, suggests an opportune moment for investors to consider positions in the Canadian market. The iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC), in particular, presents a strong case for an upgrade to a 'buy' rating.
The Canadian market, represented by the EWC, currently trades at an appealing forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.4 times. When juxtaposed with a long-term earnings growth forecast of 15.5%, this results in a PEG ratio slightly above 1, indicating that the ETF offers good value for its growth prospects. Furthermore, the EWC's portfolio is heavily weighted towards sectors such as Financials, Materials, and Energy. These sectors are benefiting from supportive interest rate policies and positive momentum in the metals markets, contributing to the ETF's impressive outperformance relative to the S&P 500.
From a technical analysis perspective, the EWC is displaying a bullish ascending triangle formation, a pattern often preceding significant upward price movements. This pattern points to a potential upside target of $65. This technical outlook is further reinforced by robust seasonal trends typically observed through July, and strong price support levels identified in the $50 range, suggesting a solid foundation for future gains. Even in the face of a technical recession, these factors combine to paint a promising picture for Canadian equities.
Considering the strong market momentum, attractive valuation, and favorable technical setup, the iShares MSCI Canada ETF represents an appealing investment opportunity. The current economic backdrop, while challenging, appears to be outweighed by the intrinsic strengths and positive market signals emanating from the Canadian equity landscape.
